by Paul Joseph
June 17, 2011
Housing prices may rise by 5-10 per cent in the next 3-6 months as the cost of funds for developers is expected to increase following the Reserve Bank of India’s decision to raise key policy rates by 25 basis points. “Property prices are bound to go up in next 3-6 months by 5-10 per cent across the country,” Confederation of Real Estate Developers’ Associations of India (CREDAI) Chairman Pradeep Jain told PTI.Jain, who is also the Chairman of Parsvnath Developers , said the hike in repo and reverse repo rates would result in an increase in interest rates for builders and the same would be passed on to home buyers. He, however, said demand would not be hit despite the expected rise in interest rates on home loans. “People will continue to buy knowing that housing prices would go up further,” he said. Instead of demand, Jain said supply would be affected, as the increase in interest rates would impact the liquidity situation of small developers. Asked about impact of the hike in repo and reverse repo rates on the realty sector, DLF Group Executive Director Rajeev Talwar said, “The constant increase in interest rates over the last one year would definitely have an impact”, and suggested that the government initiate reforms to boost the supply of housing. The Reserve Bank, for the tenth time since March, 2010, raised the repo rate by 25 basis points to 7.5 per cent and the reverse repo rate by a similar margin to 6.5 per cent today. Echoing similar views, Credai President Lalit Kumar Jain said, “Any increase in the rate of interest will be counter- productive and my fear is that it will give rise to inflation instead of curbing it.” “… The cost of funding from the developers’ point of view would also shoot up. This will be passed on to the customer, who is already under stress,” Jain, who heads Mumbai-based Kumar Urban Development Ltd , said. Raheja Developers Chairman and Managing Director Naveen Raheja said: “As the cost of money goes up, the cost of construction and production will also go up. This will lead to further inflationary pressures.” The need is to increase supply so that demand pressures can be eased and consequently, the prices are curtailed, he added.
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by Paul Joseph
May 20, 2011
After the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) decided to increase both the repo rate and reverse repo rate by half a percentage points each, to 7.25% and 6.25% respectively, banks and financial institutions are likely to increase their lending rates sooner than later. While repo rate is the rate at which RBI lends short-term funds to banks, RBI accepts short-term deposits from banks at reverse repo rate. Even more worrying for the feel-good factor of the Indian economy is the RBI’s projection moderating the economic growth to around 8% for 2011-12 , from around 8.6% in 2010-11 .This will affect the general mood of the investors, as it will bring down the return on investment in the economy. In the Union Budget presented by finance minister Pranab Mukherjee on February 28,2011,the government had estimated an economic growth rate of 9%. Therefore, one percentage point lower than the projected one for the year and 60 basis points lower than the previous year will have a severe impact on the mood of the investors and other players in the economy. The hardening of the interest rates coupled with slowdown in the economy will affect the activities in the real estate sector as well. The lowering of the economic growth is mainly on account of the efforts taken by the central bank to contain inflation which is presently hovering around 9%. Ashutosh Limaye, director (strategic consulting) at Jones Lang LaSalle India, says, “It has always been axiomatic that when financial institutions raise their lending rates, there are bound to be ripples on the highly cost-sensitive Indian real estate market.” The latest rate hike obviously means that the cost of construction has gone up for developers and this increase in repo rates by the RBI certainly does not come at the best of times for them.Limaye says banks have already taken a cautious approach to real estate lending and reduced their exposure to the sector. As result, most developers are now raising a larger component of their construction costs from the private sector.The fact that such funds come at a higher cost of borrowing has already increased their construction costs significantly. Under such circumstances ,it is logical to assume that developers would not hesitate to pass on the incremental burden to buyers to maintain their profit margins. This would certainly happen if buyer sentiments and resultant market activity were high enough to accommodate it. But, Limaye says that the market for residential real estate is far from effervescent at the moment. In a case where staying competitive and selling stock is of the utmost essence,developers are unlikely to increase the cost of their units and thereby risk losing more customers. While this will certainly impact their revenues to an extent, most developers see a sufficient profitability quotient to make a strategic decision on this count. On the whole, the increase in the rate would slowdown activities in the real estate sector.
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